So the mega election exercise that stretched for more than a month now is finally over. The CEC is the man of the moment now. And every one ranging from regional, national news papers to astrologers to psephologists to satta markets are making some sort of a prediction regarding who is going to win and who is going to occupy the coveted seats of Raisina Hill.
And as a responsible citizen who would love to vote but not given the option (non resident Indians dont have any means to vote), I think I atleast have the right to make some predictions.
Here is what I think,
1. The third front is gone, if Mr. Karat still believes that he can keep his flock together and bring a third front coalition to power, I think he is day dreaming. Something extraordinary has to happen, meaning both Congress and BJP has to win less than half the seats together.
2. I am giving 50% chance to each NDA and UPA for forming the government. I still think there is a big possibility for Mr.Advani to become the Prime minister of India. The possibility that NDA can repeat 1998 by bringing the same flock back together is very high. The one fact that is missing is most of the writings out there is the difference in how NDA and UPA treated their partners. Congress and its leaders are still not in terms with the fact that they can never enjoy the majorites that they enjoyed a decade ago. Their day dreaming, majority hangover will never allow them to treat smaller political parties with dignity (whether they deserve it or not is a different question). And that is why I think NDA still has the chances although BJP might fall short of congress in seat numbers. The possibility that TDP, AIADMK, TRS, Trinamool Congress, BJD even NCP moving to NDA is very high. Think about it, higher possibility of forming a govt where you can enjoy power for 5 years or settling for a unstable coalition which would result in election in the next 2 years... you choose..Small parties dont like elections...reason is simple..Money.
3. If UPA forms the government its not going to happen without Mr. Karat's blessings and the price here will be NO to Mr. Singh. If congress wants to keep Mr. Singh as PM it needs more than 170 seats on its own which is not going to happen or the left should be totally routed out bringing their tally to less than 30 seats. So who I think are the next possible UPA candidates.. it could be any one from the list Mr. Anthony, Mr. Mukherjee or Mr Chidambaram. Again Mrs. Gandhi might pull a humdinger like bringing Mrs. Patil as president from no where.
Adding one more caveat, any coalition with BSP will go down in drain in couple of years. Nothing against Ms. Mayavati, its just that past history along with party culture doesnt help.
And as a responsible citizen who would love to vote but not given the option (non resident Indians dont have any means to vote), I think I atleast have the right to make some predictions.
Here is what I think,
1. The third front is gone, if Mr. Karat still believes that he can keep his flock together and bring a third front coalition to power, I think he is day dreaming. Something extraordinary has to happen, meaning both Congress and BJP has to win less than half the seats together.
2. I am giving 50% chance to each NDA and UPA for forming the government. I still think there is a big possibility for Mr.Advani to become the Prime minister of India. The possibility that NDA can repeat 1998 by bringing the same flock back together is very high. The one fact that is missing is most of the writings out there is the difference in how NDA and UPA treated their partners. Congress and its leaders are still not in terms with the fact that they can never enjoy the majorites that they enjoyed a decade ago. Their day dreaming, majority hangover will never allow them to treat smaller political parties with dignity (whether they deserve it or not is a different question). And that is why I think NDA still has the chances although BJP might fall short of congress in seat numbers. The possibility that TDP, AIADMK, TRS, Trinamool Congress, BJD even NCP moving to NDA is very high. Think about it, higher possibility of forming a govt where you can enjoy power for 5 years or settling for a unstable coalition which would result in election in the next 2 years... you choose..Small parties dont like elections...reason is simple..Money.
3. If UPA forms the government its not going to happen without Mr. Karat's blessings and the price here will be NO to Mr. Singh. If congress wants to keep Mr. Singh as PM it needs more than 170 seats on its own which is not going to happen or the left should be totally routed out bringing their tally to less than 30 seats. So who I think are the next possible UPA candidates.. it could be any one from the list Mr. Anthony, Mr. Mukherjee or Mr Chidambaram. Again Mrs. Gandhi might pull a humdinger like bringing Mrs. Patil as president from no where.
Adding one more caveat, any coalition with BSP will go down in drain in couple of years. Nothing against Ms. Mayavati, its just that past history along with party culture doesnt help.